The concept of dusty North Pole ice turning around the temperature cycle at the cold end is brilliant. Are water clouds (cumulus) increasing albedo at the hot end of the cycle the main factor of temperature turning back down?
Hi Tom, I've been frustrated by the failure of many authors to try to explain the anomalies between the the popular climate change dogma, and the observations which have been ignored. So I have kept reading, and was relieved to find Ralph's presentation hosted by you. Thank you. I look forward to finding more papers which address the uncertainties. I am a mining engineer by vocation, still working at what I love, read science daily, and I have been flying recreationally for over 50 years. I live in rural Western Australia, 10" annual rainfall average.
Ralph, I wrote this comment https://judithcurry.com/2023/11/06/hansens-latest-overheated-global-warming-claims-are-based-on-bad-science/#comment-995334 which summarizes your paper. The one reply was; “The paper by Ralph Ellis, which you expand upon, is totally incorrect. The warming that began around 10,000 years ago was caused by an abrupt cessation of volcanic activity, and with no volcanic SO2 air pollution present in the atmosphere, the Earth rapidly warmed up. According to Volcanoes of the World, third edition (2010), For example, between 9,950 and 6,550 there were only 52 VEI4 and larger volcanic eruptions, fewer than one per century. In the 20th century, alone, there 75 such eruptions. This is their published data. If they are off by a factor of 10, say, this would still be equivalent to the number of eruptions during the MWP (~31 in 300 years). ” Can you refute his theory that the warming was due to “an abrupt cessation of volcanic activity”? This is an odd theory. Funny that volcanic activity must abruptly decline every 4 or 5th great summer!
I am going to say this is interesting. Ellis and Palmer use neither the data nor the math to model the albedo effects they highlight. But, climate models are not strong on albedo either. And we dont even measure it very well now, let alone in the distant past.
I would also note that Antarctica is the driest place on the planet, so a lot of ice is certainly compatible with desertification. And we know that earth has been a snowball in the past (ie runaway cooling).
The concept of dusty North Pole ice turning around the temperature cycle at the cold end is brilliant. Are water clouds (cumulus) increasing albedo at the hot end of the cycle the main factor of temperature turning back down?
Hi Tom, I've been frustrated by the failure of many authors to try to explain the anomalies between the the popular climate change dogma, and the observations which have been ignored. So I have kept reading, and was relieved to find Ralph's presentation hosted by you. Thank you. I look forward to finding more papers which address the uncertainties. I am a mining engineer by vocation, still working at what I love, read science daily, and I have been flying recreationally for over 50 years. I live in rural Western Australia, 10" annual rainfall average.
Thanks for providing that comment on Climate Etc.
Ken
Ralph, I wrote this comment https://judithcurry.com/2023/11/06/hansens-latest-overheated-global-warming-claims-are-based-on-bad-science/#comment-995334 which summarizes your paper. The one reply was; “The paper by Ralph Ellis, which you expand upon, is totally incorrect. The warming that began around 10,000 years ago was caused by an abrupt cessation of volcanic activity, and with no volcanic SO2 air pollution present in the atmosphere, the Earth rapidly warmed up. According to Volcanoes of the World, third edition (2010), For example, between 9,950 and 6,550 there were only 52 VEI4 and larger volcanic eruptions, fewer than one per century. In the 20th century, alone, there 75 such eruptions. This is their published data. If they are off by a factor of 10, say, this would still be equivalent to the number of eruptions during the MWP (~31 in 300 years). ” Can you refute his theory that the warming was due to “an abrupt cessation of volcanic activity”? This is an odd theory. Funny that volcanic activity must abruptly decline every 4 or 5th great summer!
I am going to say this is interesting. Ellis and Palmer use neither the data nor the math to model the albedo effects they highlight. But, climate models are not strong on albedo either. And we dont even measure it very well now, let alone in the distant past.
I would also note that Antarctica is the driest place on the planet, so a lot of ice is certainly compatible with desertification. And we know that earth has been a snowball in the past (ie runaway cooling).